May 1, 2010  

The Moore’s Law effect

Moore’s Law is having a dramatic impact on virtually everything it touches, from energy to materials science, from computing to robotics.

Moore’s Law is based on the observation that computer processing power doubles about every two years. Essentially everything that touches a computing network feels the effect of falling costs and increased information transfer.

Futurists such as Ray Kurzweil and Hans Moravec predict that processing power will exceed the capabilities of the human brain within the next few decades (specifically, 2025), a point known as the singularity. Of course, the issue of processing power is only part of the puzzle.

Most industry experts predict brain emulation software will be extraordinarily complex to produce. But virtual world rendering will benefit greatly from affordable processing power and will see a steep rise in realism and relevance for training and data visualization over the next decade.

Paolo Gargini, director of technology strategy for Intel Corp., recently stated that he sees Moore’s Law holding true through 2022 with current production methods. Kurzweil predicts paradigm shifts to either molecular computing or quantum computing will maintain the steady advance of computing power toward the singularity.