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We shall remember them

It’s Veterans’ Day, or, as I think of it, Remembrance Day, or simply Poppy Day.  Growing up in England, everyone, no matter who or where you were, stood still at 11am for a minute’s silence to mark the end of World War I, at the eleventh hour, on the eleventh day of the eleventh month, 1918, and remembered those who died in war. You wore your paper poppy – a  representation of the poppies that grew in Flanders Fields and which many regarded as a symbol of the soldiers’ blood spilled.

There were no WWI veterans at this year’s Remembrance services in Britain; the last three survivors, Henry Allingham, Harry Patch and Bill Stone, all died this year, 91 years after the end of the war. But Poppy Day remains a powerful and poignant day.  Especially as we include in our remembrances those soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines of America and its allies who have given their lives in our current wars.

They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old:
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them. — Laurence Binyon

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Canadian general:COIN and CT necessary in Afghanistan

Canada’s Chief of the Land Staff, Lt. Gen. Andrew Leslie, said today that counterinsurgency and counterterrorism are both necessary in the war in Afghanistan.

The question of whether a COIN strategy, like the one proposed in Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s assessment, or a counterterrorism strategy, seemingly favored by some of President Obama’s advisers, is better for Afghanistan is being hotly debated in Washington, D.C.

Speaking within a couple of blocks of the White House at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Leslie said it wasn’t a question of one versus the other: Both are necessary.

“I happen to believe that tenets of counterinsurgency apply in Afghanistan, but here’s the rub: Afghanistan is a very complex counterinsurgency fight, but threaded throughout are hardcore elements and so it has counterterrorism elements,” Leslie said.

For those pockets of extreme terrorists with whom there can be no dialogue, there is only one solution, he added.

“Therefore, both points of view are correct.”

Leslie made some very interesting points in his presentation. He is extremely proud of Canada’s contribution to Afghanistan, and rightly so. There are about 3,000 Canadian Armed Forces troops in Afghanistan, the vast majority in Kandahar, one of the toughest provinces, and they’ve fought hard there continuously since 2006, suffering proportionately more fatalities than any other NATO force and, until very recently, it’s been a lone mission. Two U.S. battalions joined them two months ago.

The Canadians have been operating a COIN campaign, the edict being that they “live, sleep, eat and fight” alongside Afghans, who Leslie described as “very good, natural warriors.”

Here’s interesting Point One: Leslie said that the Canadians were “better equipped than any U.S. Army group.” He later explained that comment by saying that Canadian troops have more tanks and armored vehicles per soldier than do the Americans, which use a lot of Humvees. Leslie is a fan of the tank. “Tanks tend to have a calming influence when they turn up. It’s really hard to argue with 70 tons of steel,” he said.

Interesting Point Two: Leslie would not be drawn on the issue of the number of additional troops that should be deployed to Afghanistan and on McChrystal’s assessment that around 40,000 additional Americans are needed.  But he did have this to say: “Every soldier wants more, that is a given. There is a certain critical mass that will allow you to do what you need to while minimizing casualties. That allows you to shape the forces because you have quality and mass.”

Without mass, he said, you end up “mowing the lawn,” having to return to land you’ve already passed over.

Interesting Point Three: Canada’s Parliament has declared that Canada shall cease all combat operations in Afghanistan by mid-2011 and withdraw. Leslie’s comment on this? “When we are told to come home, we come home. I may have strong personal view on that, but they are personal.”

Later, in response to a question, he also said that meantime, combat operations would not diminish, pledging to continue “full tilt.”

“We have not cut back a whisker; there is too much to do,” the general said.

Sounds like a soldier who believes in this fight.

Leslie, by the way, is the ultimate diplomat soldier. He holds the Meritorious Service Medal for his actions under fire during fighting for Knin in 1995 in the former Yugoslavia. And he’s the grandson of two World War I veterans: Gen. Andrew McNaughton, former Chief of General Staff and Minister of National Defence; and former Minister of National Defence Brooke Claxton.

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13 rules for Afghanistan

An ominous  number, I know, but it’s still a good list.

At the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy’s Afghanistan conference yesterday in Washington D.C., the center’s board chair, Zbigniew Brzezinski opened with the following three Don’ts and ten Do’s for Afghanistan.

Don’t:

1. Withdraw from Afghanistan;

2. Repeat the Soviet experience in Afghanistan. “There’s a reason Afghans don’t like foreigners with guns in their country telling them what to do”;

3. Make this a solitary U.S. military engagement.

Do:

1. Focus on a realistic and central strategic objective of denying safe haven to al-Qaida in Afghanistan and Pakistan;

2. Be extremely sensitive to the ethnic diversity of Afghanistan;

3. Shape an Afghan national army and police force, but recognize that doing so via the central government may not be compatible with also recognizing the country’s ethnic diversity;

4. Deploy only the number of extra troops that are essential to the counterinsurgency campaign,  and no more;

5. Pursue the Taliban;

6. Keep economic assistance flowing;

7. Involve the Europeans, not only in military aspects but also in funding of programs such as anti-narcotic crops campaigns;

8. Be more respectful of Pakistan’s strategic interests in Afghanistan. Pakistan is afraid that a non-Taliban Afghanistan could become a neutral partners of India and that poses difficult diplomatic choices for the U.S. that it must confront;

9. Engage China and Iran more regarding their concerns in Afghanistan. China is concerned about the spread of militant Islamism and could be helpful to the U.S. in creating some sort of diplomatic process in the region. Iran’s stake hinges on the sizable Shia community in Afghanistan;

10. More actively move to create a north-south [natural gas] pipeline through the country to the Indian Ocean to help flow funds into Afghanistan and create a wider regional interest in stabilizing the country.

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Industrial base in jeopardy

There’s a new report out by the Mitchell Institute for Airpower Studies that paints a dark picture for the future of the U.S. aerospace industrial base.

Written by Rebecca Grant, the Institute’s director and a Lexington Institute Fellow, the report is a little high on drama. For instance, it refers to April 6 as “Black Monday” because that’s when DoD announced its 2010 defense budget proposal that called for the termination of the F-22, C-17 and Next-Gen Bomber aircraft programs.

The shock-and-awe language is not surprising, given that the Mitchell Institute is an Air Force Association organization.

However, it still makes some good points about the shrinking U.S. aerospace manufacturing base and what that could spell for competition and innovation. Check out the full document here.

And for another very good analysis of  U.S. aerospace and defense industrial base concerns, also check out this special report by the Aerospace Industries Association, which Grant refers to in her report and which highlights the growing gap between DoD’s view of industry as an always-ready supplier of capabilities and how industry actually makes decisions on what capabilities to offer.

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Carl Levin proposes following U.K. model on Afghanistan

Senate Armed Forces Committee chairman Carl Levin put out an interesting proposal on Afghanistan today: Follow the U.K. model that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown outlined earlier this month.

Speaking at at the Russell Senate Office during a forum on U.S. Policy in Afghanistan presented by RAND’s Center for Middle East Public Policy, Levin said Brown’s proposal was “a thoughtful model to follow.”

Brown’s proposal is detailed in an earlier blog, but the key components are 500 more British troops on condition that Afghanistan steps up its commitment to expanding its security forces and NATO allies similarly increase their contributions.

Levin said this model demonstrated British renewed resolve, committed to a counterinsurgency strategy, but also minimized the perception of a foreign occupation because the additional combat troops that Brown pledged — 500 on top of the 9,500 British troops already in Afghanistan — was small, an increase of around five percent.

“I believe if President Obama were to stand alongside Prime Minister Brown and leaders of our other NATO allies, and announce a NATO Afghan initiative following the British model, he would win the support of the American people, their representatives in Congress and, most important, the Afghan people whose future hangs in the balance, even if he decided not to include a large combat troop increase,” Levin said.

So here’s the math if the Obama administration follows Levin’s advice: Using the British template would equate to an increase of American troops of around 3,400; a huge difference compared with the 40,000 or more troops that Gen. Stanley McChrystal is believed to be calling for to support a counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan.

Levin also seems to assume that Brown’s proposal, even with a minimum of extra troops promised, has the support of the British Parliament and public. In fact, that is far from clear; many in the U.K. are questioning the need to be in Afghanistan at all, let alone to add troops.

And Brown, unlike Obama, is an unpopular leader who faces a general election next year that most polls indicate his party will lose. If Brown is ousted, then the British template for Afghanistan could likely change.

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Brown sends more U.K. troops to Afghanistan: Or does he?

British prime minister Gordon Brown told Parliament this morning of plans to send 500 additional to Afghanistan, increasing the total number of U.K. troops deployed there to 9,500.

But there are conditions. Brown said he first must be certain that the troops had the necessary equipment and training;  that other NATO countries also increase their troop numbers; and that the Afghan government prepares more of its own troops to increase its presence in Helmand province, where the majority of British troops are deployed.

So the devil is in the details, especially the last two.

Afghanistan is hugely controversial in Britain with more and more people questioning why U.K. troops are there at all. Since the end of July alone, 37 British troops have died in Afghanistan – Brown made a point in his opening statement this morning of reading out each of their names.

Brown is a  highly unpopular leader and it’s widely expected that his Labor party will be unseated in next year’s general election.

Ironically, that may give Brown more freedom to make this  unpopular announcement – he has nothing to lose.

But the real question is this: How likely is it that the conditions will be met?

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Gates: A shield for the president?

An excellent discussion on Afghanistan on Friday at the Medill School of Journalism in Washington, D.C., which joined forces with the National Defense University to bring together a panel of military analysts,  reporters and professors.

An interesting observation raised by the panel was the idea that Defense Secretary Robert Gates acts as a “shield” for President Barack Obama and may have been selected with that role partly in mind.

You could similarly argue that Hillary Clinton plays a shield role as Secretary of State. Together, Clinton and Gates deflect and protect Obama on those issues where he has least experience – defense and foreign affairs – permitting the president to focus on domestic policies.

Seen in that context, Gates’ comments last week at the Army’s AUSA Convention in D.C. that civilian and military advisors to the president on Afghanistan should speak candidly but privately were not so much an admonishment of one particular general officer, but more a general warning against exposing the president to public debate before he’s ready.

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Welcome to the AFJ Blog

For sure, it’s been a long time coming, but here it is…the AFJ Editor’s Blog.

Think of it as a regular on-line Darts & Laurels: Observations and opinions on all things related to war, defense and national security.

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